Probabilistic Medical Reasoning

Medical Decision Making:
Probabilistic Medical Reasoning
The importance of probability in medical decision making was noted as long ago as 1922: “…good medicine does not consist in the indiscriminate application of laboratory examinations to a patient, but rather in having so clear a comprehension of the probabilities and possibilities of a case as to know what tests may be expected to give information of value” [Peabody, 1922].


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